Big Chance
A big chance is an attempt that satisfies a provider's written criteria, typically a one-on-one, a shot from very close range, or an attempt from a clear position with no defender able to intervene.
What it means
The category is defined by the provider rather than derived from the model, so the same attempt may be a big chance under one pipeline and an ordinary attempt under another.
Why it matters
It gives a crude but easily communicated count of the clearest opportunities a side created or conceded, which is useful in commentary where a model value would be opaque.
Where it is used
Match summaries, and the description of the clearest opportunities in a game, always with the provider's criteria in mind.
Where it misleads
The threshold is arbitrary, the count is small and therefore noisy, and it carries no quality gradient inside the category. A chance just above the threshold and one just below are treated as different objects.
Key points
- It is a provider category, not a model output.
- The count is small, so season totals are unstable.
- It contains no gradient; every big chance looks alike.
- Big chances missed is a separate column and a different question.
- Compare counts only within one provider's definition.
- It complements expected goals rather than replacing it.
The metric is a measurement with a denominator, and the denominator is what makes the figure comparable rather than merely large.