On-Ball Value (OBV)
On-ball value estimates the change in a team's scoring probability across every action with the ball, including passes, carries, dribbles, shots and turnovers, and sums those changes.
What it means
Actions that raise the team's chance of scoring are positive and actions that lower it, including losing the ball, are negative, so attacking contributions and costly errors are expressed in the same unit.
Why it matters
It produces one number that can be summed across a team, which no combination of separate attacking and error columns can do.
Where it is used
Player and team season review, recruitment and any analysis where risk-taking needs to be priced rather than merely counted.
Where it misleads
Risk appetite shapes the total, so two players with the same figure can be an elite creator and a liability. It also captures nothing about defending without the ball, and its aggregation makes the number hard to interrogate.
Key points
- The total is opaque; read the components to explain it.
- Negative values are accounting entries, not judgements about effort.
- It measures possession work only and never off-ball defending.
- Use the total for ranking and the components for explanation.
- Report minutes and the turnover count alongside it.
- High-variance and low-variance profiles can share one total.
Nothing here is a forecast; the number describes play that has already happened and the limits above describe what it cannot reach.