Shot Quality
Shot quality is the mean expected-goals value per attempt, which describes how good a side's chances were rather than how many it created.
What it means
Dividing the total by the shot count separates a side that creates few excellent chances from one that creates many poor ones, which the total alone cannot distinguish.
Why it matters
It explains why two sides with identical expected goals can be attacking in entirely different ways, and it is a direct measure of shot selection.
Where it is used
Attacking style analysis, and the diagnosis of why a high-volume side is underperforming.
Where it misleads
It is sensitive to a small number of extreme values, so a single long-range goal can move it. It also depends on the game state, since a chasing side takes many low-value shots.
Key points
- Two sides can share a total with very different quality per shot.
- It is sensitive to individual extreme attempts.
- Game state contaminates it heavily in single matches.
- Report it with the shot count and the total.
- It is the inverse of shot volume and should be read with it.
- Season windows give a stable figure; matches do not.
Where two figures for the same thing disagree, the difference is almost always in the definition rather than in the arithmetic.